ServicenavigationHauptnavigationTrailKarteikarten


Forschungsstelle
BLV
Projektnummer
1.15.06
Projekttitel
Räumlichen Risikobewertung des Auftretens und der Ausbreitung von exotischen Tierseuchen in Europa (SPARE)
Projekttitel Englisch
Development of SPatial risk assessment framework for Assessing exotic disease incuRsion and spread through Europe (SPARE)

Texte zu diesem Projekt

 DeutschFranzösischItalienischEnglisch
Schlüsselwörter
Anzeigen
-
-
Anzeigen
Kurzbeschreibung
Anzeigen
-
-
Anzeigen
Projektziele
-
-
-
Anzeigen
Zielerreichung
Anzeigen
-
-
-
Abstract
Anzeigen
-
-
-
Umsetzung und Anwendungen
Anzeigen
-
-
-
Expertenbericht/Kurzevaluation
Anzeigen
-
-
-
Publikationen / Ergebnisse
-
-
-
Anzeigen
URL-Adressen
Anzeigen
-
-
-

Erfasste Texte


KategorieText
Schlüsselwörter
(Deutsch)
Räumliche Risikobewertung, Krankheitseinschleppung, Krankheitsübertragung, Expositionsrisiko, Frühwarnsystem
Schlüsselwörter
(Englisch)

Spatial risk assessment, incursion, disease transmission, entry risk, exposure risk, risk pathways, early warning system.

Kurzbeschreibung
(Deutsch)

The area of spatial risk assessments and European decision-support systems has been developing rapidly in concert with increasing processor speeds and the availability of multiple spatial datasets, with several standalone European projects such as FLURISK (spatial mapping of global Avian influenza risk), FLUTest (risk assessment for introduction of Avian influenza into EU), Antigone (risk assessment for introduction of bat borne viruses into EU), and RISKSUR (network analysis of animal health surveillance efficiency in EU). These innovative projects have shown that there is considerable added value that can be gained from spatial analysis and combination of available datasets.

 

The European Union (EU) maintains a number of extensive and real time datasets. Further data on global presence of disease is available through datasets held by the OIE (World Animal Health Information System, WAHID) or by FAO, (Global Animal Disease Information System, Empres-i). However, these risk assessments are typically complex and data-hungry, limiting the real-world applicability in the event of a novel disease outbreak.

 

The project will therefore develop a systematic methodology and interface to make rapid use of available metadata to identify pathways of potential risk for classes of disease transmission (e.g. vector borne). The framework and the relevant models developed in SPARE will be focused on disease incursion into the European Union. Case studies of animal disease will be selected such that different mechanisms of spread within Europe will be represented. Key elements will be developed in freeware to be disseminated to interested member states assuring interfacing with existing early warning mechanisms and capacity building.

 

Data quality and uneven reporting are key challenges to the validity of outputs derived from European and global datasets. However, where known, caveats regarding the source datasets will be carried through the analysis and attached to the final output to indicate key areas where data are unknown and where data provided are associated with uncertainty. Recommendations on the standardisation of dataset interfaces and reporting in order to achieve a harmonized approach will be made.

 

The project is focused on delivering an interface for spatial risk assessment for European Member States which will significantly increase the capability of risk assessors and decision makers for preparedness for disease outbreaks, assist in horizon scanning activities for early warning, and in the first instances of a disease outbreak assist in making rapid, objective and systematic evaluations to inform surveillance activities thus saving time and financial resources. The project will also promote capacity building through the dissemination of freeware elements of the spatial risk assessment.

Kurzbeschreibung
(Englisch)

Disease incursion and transmission modelling can play an important role in elucidating important pathways and dynamics of transboundary diseases. It is an important pre-requisite for preparedness, horizon scanning and rapid response. The objective of the project is to develop an overarching model to make rapid use of available metadata to identify pathways of potential risk for classes of disease transmission (e.g. vector borne). This framework will provide invaluable information for risk assessors in the first instances of a disease outbreak where typically information on imports and routes of entry and potential for spread is undertaken on a case-by-case basis. It will also allow for an objective and systematic evaluation to inform risk-based animal health and zoonotic surveillance activities, either generically or for specific diseases. The framework will be readily adaptable not only to specific disease hazards, but also to broad classes of disease, defined by their mode of transmission.

 

The development of such a framework and transformation of datasets to a common format is a considerable challenge. Several aspects proposed in this project have been successfully piloted in standalone European projects such as FLURISK (spatial mapping of global Avian influenza risk), FLUTest (risk assessment for introduction of Avian influenza into EU), Antigone (risk assessment for introduction of bat borne viruses into EU), and RISKSur (network analysis of animal health surveillance efficiency in EU). These innovative projects have shown that there is considerable added value that can be gained from spatial analysis and combination of available datasets. This project would therefore be taking forward the expertise gained from these research projects.

 

To assure feasibility and focus, the project will group biological hazards into distinct mode-of-transmission classes (e.g. vector-borne diseases) and develop a case study for each mode-of-transmission for disease spread within Europe. For the release assessment, relevant incidence data from exporting countries will be combined with trade data, air passenger information, road transport data, and vector movement to identify important trade/movement routes from relevant geographical regions. The exposure assessment will identify the potential spread of disease via competent vectors by member state and for exposure of domestic livestock and/or humans by population density mapping and be used to inform efficient surveillance designs.

 

Encompassing all areas in the project will be a communication network, ensuring that the modelling work builds on previous work in this area and is fit to provide scientific support to decision makers. In the event of an incursion, risk management decisions are to be taken under significant time constraints. The project will specifically address this dialogue and propose processes taking into account existing organisations and structures, to assure a rapid translation from science into policy.

Projektziele
(Englisch)

The primary aim of the project is to provide rapid access to and use of available metadata on trade and human and animal contact structures to identify pathways of potential risk of incursion and/or spread for different mechanisms of disease transmission.

 

A secondary aim is to create a framework that is flexible and readily adaptable not only to known, specific emerging disease hazards, but also to larger groups of unknown hazards, defined by their mode of transmission (e.g. vector-borne). This will help assure general preparedness and feed into existing early warning systems for decision makers on the possible animal health threats arising from changes in global trade.

 

The specific objectives of the project are:

 

  1. To develop a systematic methodology to rank the risk related to selected pathogens based on the probability of incursion and taking into account the relevance of transmission pathways within Europe.

     

     

     

  2. To apply the approach to selected hazards relevant to participating countries and for the EU in general (case studies). Case studies will be selected such that different mechanisms of spread within Europe will be represented.

     

     

     

  3. To develop the functionalities of the model including data exchange and merging protocols for data from different sources, using software available in freeware such that it can be disseminated to interested member states assuring interfacing with existing early warning mechanisms.

 

Zielerreichung
(Deutsch)
--
Abstract
(Deutsch)
--
Umsetzung und Anwendungen
(Deutsch)
--
Expertenbericht/Kurzevaluation
(Deutsch)
--
Publikationen / Ergebnisse
(Englisch)

Only peer reviewed publications are shown in the following list. More publications are under development. Complete list of posters and presentations is available in the project website https://www.spare-europe.eu/library:

V. Horigan, M. De Nardi, R.R.L. Simons, S. Bertolini, M. I. Crescio, A. Estrada-Peña, A. Léger, C. Maurella, G. Ru, M. Schuppers, K.D.C. Stärk, A. Adkin, 2018, Using multi-criteria risk ranking methodology to select case studies for a generic risk assessment framework assessing exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe, Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 153, p47-55

Anaïs Léger, Marco De Nardi, Robin Simons, Amie Adkin, Giuseppe Ru, Agustín Estrada-Peña, Katharina D.C. Stärk, 2017, Assessment of biosecurity measures to prevent incursion and limit spread of transboundary animal diseases in Europe, Vaccine, 35(44):5956-5966

S. Robin, V. Horigan, M. De Nardi, G. Ru, A.E. Pena, A. Adkin (2017). Mighty Models from little data grow: Estimating animal disease prevalence. Proceedings paper, Society of Preventive and Veterinary Medicine (www.svepm.org.uk), Inverness on 29-31 March 2017

Crescio M.I., Maurella C., Bertolini S., Mastrantonio G., Ingravalle F., Bona M.C., Simons R., De Nardi M., Adkin A., Estrada-Peña A. et Ru G., (2017). Exposure assessment in the context of the SPARE project: a model to spatially assess exotic diseases incursions and spread throughout Europe.  Épidémiologie et santé animale, 2017, 71, 139-148.

Zugehörige Dokumente
URL-Adressen
(Deutsch)