Résumé des résultats (Abstract)
(Anglais)
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A key objectives of the SAPIENT project are a) to quantify the correlation between R&D spending in energy technologies and the induced technological progress and b) to allocate public R&D budget to energy technologies such that a set of policy objectives is met with a given probability (i.e. incorporating notions of hedging). Different databases and appropriate small and large-scale models have been developed or applied for that purpose.
The contribution of PSI to the project was:
· The development of special versions of the models MERGE and ERIS that incorporate the two factor learning formula (2FF) e.g., learning by doing and learning by searching that allows to evaluate the implications of R&D spending for the economy, the energy markets and the environment and to explore domains of optimal, energy related R&D strategies under uncertainty.
· Performance of global scale Post-Kyoto analyses to establish impacts in the energy markets as well as the specification of the R&D value for clean technologies under Post-Kyoto conditions.
The PSI objectives on model development and use are fully achieved. In doing that, the following steps of work have been completed: (1) Extension ERIS to include learning by searching, the appropriate R&D data per technology and an R&D portfolio sub-model using the 2FF relations; (2) extension of MERGE to include learning by doing; (3) database improvements of MERGE describing explicitly technologies for power generation; (4) extension of MERGE to include the 2FF formulation, a Portfolio sub-model and the concept of knowledge stock; (4) estimation of indicators by technology, as needed for the SAPIENT project; and (5) documentation of results obtained with the ERIS-2FF prototype model and Post-Kyoto (Marrakech) scenarios derived using the MERGE-ETL model.
PSI was invited to present the work with MERGE in the International Conference on endogenous learning (Amsterdam), in the International Conference of the Alliance for Global Sustainability (Lausanne) and at CEPE -ETH Zurich in the Annual 2001 meeting of the Swiss Association for Energy Economics. A few intermediate reports have been made available to the partners while the final reports are submitted for publications.
The following reports are submitted for publication:
· A MERGE Model with Endogenous Technological Progress
Kypreos, S. and O. Bahn, submitted to Environmental Modeling and Assessment
· MERGE-ETL: An Optimisation Equilibrium Model with Two Different Endogenous Technological Learning Formulations
Bahn, O. and S. Kypreos PSI Report, approved for publication
The technical report of SAPIENT will include two-PSI contributions, namely:
· R&D and market experience: Two-factor learning curves in ERIS
Barreto, L. and S. Kypreos, and
· Incorporating different endogenous learning formulations in MERGE
Kypreos, S: and O. Bahn
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