Résumé des résultats (Abstract)
(Anglais)
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The contribution of EPFL-LEM explains modal shift and Transalpine crossing allocation in 2020, depending upon transport policies.
The objective here is to forecast the impact of new policies. To do so, EPFL has built a new transport model 'TRANSALP', dedicated to Transalpine freight forecast.
TRANSALP is based on extensive observations of the year 1994 (transport mode, Alpine crossing, commodity group and origin-destination pairs), which has then been updated with recent figures and economic data. Demand is then expressed by means of cost functions, which indicate shippers' modal choice and crossing selection.
An important specification of the model is that it has been designed as a set of interdependent modules and it is fully compatible with standard spreadsheets for development of new interfaces. This enables the possibility of further integration concerning air pollution and other sustainability issues.
Results
The results based on 3 scenarios show how road and rail infrastructure will be used along the Alps between now and 2020, depending upon changes in transport policies as well as economic development in EU Member states and in Switzerland: more and more stringent measures are introduced in order to increase rail modal share from 39 % (Reference scenario) to 44 % (Improve-Rail scenario), up to 50 % in 2020 (the Fifty-Fifty scenario).
Therefore, if equal market share between road and rail has ever to be achieved over the global Alpine bow in 2020 (ie. still allowing for inertia such as more road freight in France & Austria, whilst more rail in Switzerland), there is a need for extremely rigorous actions, co-ordinated at European level.
Recommendations
The clearest outcome of this study is that a new international authority should be created, with the mission of coordinating the global transalpine transport. This authority should lead to a better harmonisation of policy measures, infrastructure planning, realisation and operation amongst the Alpine countries as well as amongst countries influencing Transalpine transport.
The main Transalpine freight issues this new authority should tackle are listed below:
Harmonization for rail performance
Balance (Fifty-Fifty scenario) is only reached after all barriers to rail freight have been lifted at the borders, allowing average speed up to 60-90 km/h, in concert with yearly cuts in rail costs between 2-2,5%.
This leads to two interrelated measures: first, all new Transalpine projects linking France, Switzerland and Austria to Italy are needed not merely for capacity, but for enabling high commercial speed and, secondly, that their realisation should be synchronized with complete removal of institutional obstacles.
Harmonization for modal complementarities
Transalpine relations imply countries far away from the Alps. Since Alpine crossings regulate modal choice far upstream, the main origin and destination regions should participate to infrastructure finance.
Trans-modal economics
New large-scale projects aimed at achieving globally more efficient and sustainable Transalpine transport should be financed trans-modally, seeking modal solidarity, over one or two generations only.
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