Partner und Internationale Organisationen
(Englisch)
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NTUA, IIASA, ECN, CNRS/IEPE, ESD, PTS, K.U. LEUVEN, USTUTT
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Abstract
(Englisch)
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Objectives: The primary objectives of the project for PSI is to share experience with the main model developers in Europe, to improve and expand the modelling capabilities and to contribute to quantitative analyses on the diffusion of innovative technologies and to gain insights on the public energy RTD strategies.
Technical Approach: The PSI contribution to the TEEM project consist of:
· The development, in co-operation with the partners, of the Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS) Prototype model with endogenous learning and uncertainty with emphasis on the treatment of technology innovation as an endogenous modelling aspect.
· The adoption of the appropriate modelling ideas by large scale models like PRIMES and MARKAL.
· Performance of Post-Kyoto analyses of the energy and electricity markets on global scale using the multi-regional version of ERIS with trade of Carbon permits.
Expected Achievements and Exploitation for PSI:
The key contribution of PSI to the project objectives was the development of the mixed Integer (MIP) version of the ERIS and the MIP version of the large scale model -MARKAL. PSI demonstrated with case studies the advantages of the MIP approach for endogenous learning versus conventional non -linear (NLP) or mixed complementarity (MCP) models. PSI generalised the Prototype model to include any technology for electricity production based on fossil fuels as well as renewable resources and nuclear energy. It introduced also the version with multi-regional analyses and trade of Carbon permits, uncertainty and hedging. Finally PSI performed a global Post-Kyoto analyses of the electricity markets under uncertainty and regionalized learning.
Documentation and reporting on the development and application of the ERIS Prototype model
First, IIASA proposed a very simple optimisation model that includes learning-by-doing and NTUA undertook the coding of the first prototype in a NLP and MCP formulation. Afterwards, PSI modified the first ERIS prototype and solve it using MIP algorithms. PSI extended and generalised the model including uncertainty and hedging. The MIP version is adopted by the project partners as the ultimate method to represent learning by doing effects in an optimisation model with perfect foresight. Finally, PSI developed a multi-regional version of the code with trade of Carbon permits to be used in the analyses of Post-Kyoto scenarios with regionalized learning options.
This more elaborated version of ERIS is distributed by PSI to the partners together with the Synthesis report on the ERIS model, called: 'Synthesis Report on the ERIS Model Prototype ' issued at the end of 1998 and policy conclusions are drawn from the above exercise regarding the policy analysis perspective
Contribution to the development of MARKAL with endogenous learning
PSI implemented the MIP approach to the large scale energy allocation model MARKAL (work done in terms of the IEA/ETSAP Project), and used the model for the scope of the TEEM project. PSI applied the MIP approach to a global but simplified Markal model of electricity production and reported results
on different Meetings and Workshops, like :
· The ETSAP workshop (Antalya, Turkey, 1998) 'A simple Global Electricity MARKAL Model with Endogenous Learning'
· IEA/DOE/EPA International Workshop (Washington DC May 1999) on 'Technologies to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions'
· Presentation/Publication at the AEE/IAEE Conference on 'Technological Progress and the Energy Challenges', 30 September - 1 October 1999, Paris-France, called
'Endogenous Technological Learning: Experience with the ERIS Model Prototype'
· PSI Report No. 99-08, September 1998 'Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS model Prototype'
· It is foreseen to publish a special volume in the IJGEI in the year 2000, describing the TEEM project including our contributions.
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