Partner und Internationale Organisationen
(Englisch)
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10 instituts européens: CSST DLR, EPFL-ITEP, Gdansk University, INRETS, INRO-TNO, ITS, IWW, KTI, Trans- Por, UPM
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Abstract
(Englisch)
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The Scenarios project aims to develop an innovative approach of strategic transport issues for the EU Transport Directorate and the Concertation Group devoted to the Strategic package.
This work provides a generic structure designed to help considering the external factors influcencing transport as well as reference scenarios involving political options and strategies. The Scenarios research programme also provides advice for modelling in the long- term horizon, in order to achieve the general EU goals and common transport policy objectives.
Between 1996 and 1999, SCENARIOS has investigated different issues of scenario construction. It has performed an in-depth analysis of the factors that have an effect upon the transport sector, an investigation of the use of modelling tools and, finally, it has sought the definition of a reference scheme for external environment as well as for transport policy (time horizon 2020).
After completion of the research, SCENARIOS proposes
1) a set of general hypotheses for socio- economic environment, with a European wide coverage, demography hypotheses, national GDP and foreign trade, main disaggregation of activities, as well as a first analysis of spatial dynamics per type of region;
2) the identification of the main transport determinants concerning demand and supply for four main market segments: short/ long distance and passenger/ goods, including consideration of the impacts of new technologies upon motorisation, mobility and the need for mobility;
3) a typology of models available for the four transport market segments (short- long dist./ pass-goods), and an investigation of the models developed in the 4. PCRD;
4) a global reference scenario for transport policy development and for the evolution of the socio-economic environment.
The contribution of ITEP- LEM unit of EPFL is basically devoted to the assessment of the potentials of new technologies. Maglev technology has been investigated for high- speed transport through the comparative study of MLX in Japan, Transrapid in Germany and Swissmetro in Switzerland, whereas flexibility at relatively low speed has been illustrated by the Serpentine project. The study also evaluates the potentials of intelligent transport systems (ITS) for new forms of traffic management and, eventually, it estimates to what extent new services provided by information technologies such as telework and teleconference could substitute to physical transport.
Researchers interested in computer models for long- term projections may also refer to the co-ordinated STREAMS and POSSUM projects.
SCENARIOS will be followed by the SCENES project, which will take the findings of ongoing projects STREAMS and SCENARIOS as a basis for the elaboration of specific scenarios (at national, regional and scale) in the perspective 2020.
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