Critical Transitions in Complex Systems

• Forschungsstelle: SBFI
• Projektnummer: 15.0108

Abstract (Englisch)

Complex systems research has been on the forefront of scientific priorities of many national research councils and the EU\nfor more than a decade. Many very interesting phenomena have been identified and explored, but the development of the\nunderpinning mathematical theory has been lagging behind. The proposed training network builds on an emerging\ndevelopment in applied mathematics to provide proper mathematical theory for the existence of early-warning signals for\nsudden changes in dynamical behaviour, so-called critical transitions, which have been reported by applied scientists in\nvarious contexts.\nPractical implications for the existence of such early-warning signals are far reaching, since these would enable the\ndevelopment of better control strategies to avoid or diminish the effect of catastrophes. Topical examples include epileptic\nseizures, stock market collapses, earthquakes, and climate.\nAttending to the mathematical underpinning for critical transitions in complex systems, it is apparent that the relevant\nmathematical discipline of bifurcation theory, that has been developed to great acclaim and use for primarily low-dimensional\ndeterministic autonomous (i.e. intrinsically time-independent) dynamical systems, and (in the context of phase transitions)\nfor material science, does not apply without nontrivial modification to most of the complex systems contexts.\nThe training network is a response to the needs of applied scientists (including many in the private sector) for a proper\nmathematical underpinning of early-warning signals. After their training, the trained researchers will be at the very forefront\nof this rapidly developing field, with many practical skills and crucial theoretical insights into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of early-warning signals for critical transitions in a wide range of contexts.