The project has the objective to identify measures to prevent atrocity crimes and their appropriate timing through action oriented empirical research, by using the risk factors mentioned in the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to do so. As atrocity crimes are generally the result of a process, it is possible to identify warning signs that they might occur. If we understand the risk factors that can lead to or enable their commission, it follows that we can also identify measures that can be taken by States and the international community to prevent these crimes. It will be carried out by the Special Adviser of the Secretary General on the Responsibility to Protect, Mr. Ivan Simonovic.
The idea is to use the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to identify measures to prevent atrocity crimes and their appropriate timing through action oriented empirical research.
The success of the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes will lie in three things:
(i) That it is an effective framework that identifies the right risk factors;
(ii) That it confronts the UN and Member States with their responsibility to take action and serves as a useful tool to facilitate that action.
(iii) That it is used by a range of actors who see a utility in it for their broader work on peace and security, development and human rights.
The aim of the proposed project is to promote the practical use of the Framework so that it can be easily applied by a variety of actors that play a role in preventing atrocity crimes, including Member States, regional organizations and civil society, with a view to these actors taking early and effective action in response to early warning signs.
Empirical research of risk factors and indicators, in particular those factors that address or inhibit risk, based on the comparative analysis of country situations where atrocity crimes have or have not been committed, could serve to guide action by Member States and the United Nations to prevent atrocity crimes and to assist States to this end.
Such research would provide experience-based insights into what worked and what did not work in mitigating or inhibiting specific risks for atrocity crimes. The results of this research could contribute to Implementation of the Human Rights Up Front (HRuF) Action Plan, aimed at improving early action and prevention efforts by the UN system, as well as advocacy for action by other actors (regional organizations, neighbouring states, donors) who may be positioned to take necessary action to prevent further détérioration of situations and potential atrocity crimes. Through comparative analysis of country situations in which risks factors for atrocity crimes have been present and either have or have not led to atrocity crimes, identify measures to address them in a timely manner To be effective, assessments of country situations require the systematic collection of accurate and reliable Information based on the risk factors and indicators that the Framework identifies.
Risk factors are conditions that increase the risk of or susceptibility to negative outcomes. Those identified in this framework include behaviours, circumstances or éléments that create an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, or indicate the potential, probability or risk of their occurrence. Risk factors are not all the same. As defined in the Framework, some are structural in nature, such as the weakness of State structures, while others pertain to more dynamic circumstances or events, such as triggering factors. Triggers and other dynamic elements transform général risk into an increased likelihood that atrocities crimes will be committed.
The indicators included in the Framework are différent manifestations of each risk factor, and therefore assist in determining the degree to which an individual risk factor is present. The particular indicators identified in the Framework have been drawn from past and current cases, but are not intended to be exhaustive. The more risk factors (and the greater number of relevant indicators) that are présent, the greater the risk that an atrocity crime may be committed. Also, the greater the number of indicators of a particular risk factor that are present, the greater the importance and role of that factor in a particular situation.
The current assessment of risk factors and indicators does not take into account the timespan in which their manifestations occur, nor their intensity and their interrelationship. Research could help to make the risk assessment more relevant and reliable, and explore the impact of the timing of the relevant manifestations of risk factors and indicators, their intensity and interrelationship. Special attention will be devoted to identifying a template of measures that can be taken to address risk factors and assess their timing and adequacy as a response to specific risks. Both short and long term measures would be identified. Effectively addressing some risk factors may require time, but some actions may potentially be conducted immediately to avoid triggering atrocities, or strengthening résistance to them thereby buying more time to address the risk factors in greater depth. As a result, it would be possible to better predict the likelihood of further escalation of crisis situations, and hence the risk that they may lead to atrocity crimes and increase the ability of all stakeholders to better adequately react to eariy warning signs. It would allow for more timely and effective mobilization by the UN system, Member States and other actors (regional organisations, civil society organisations) to prevent atrocity crimes. This action-oriented research is expected to deliver concrète outcomes: its results, even before finalization of the project, would be used for prévention purposes.
