Prediction of air quality in future hot and dry summers in Europe and its links with climate studied with the online coupled meteorology-chemistry-landsurface model COSMO-ART-CLM

• Research unit: COST
• Project number: C11.0144

Key words (English)

air quality - climate interactions; ozone; biogenic VOCs; secondary organic aerosols; atmosphere-biosphere interactions

Research programs (English)

COST-Action ES1004 - European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling

Short description (English)

Air quality, weather and climate are intimately linked in several ways. In addition to the direct and indirect effects of pollutants (notably aerosols) on radiation, biosphere-atmosphere interactions provide another area of potential interactions and feedbacks. Meteorological conditions affect the release of biogenic VOCs which contribute to ozone and aerosol formation. Futhermore, they affect the state of vegetation and thereby dry deposition by plant stomatal uptake. In this study we will investigate how summertime air quality will respond to future changes towards warmer and drier conditions in Europe using the online coupled regional model system COSMO-ART-CLM which integrates a meteorological and chemistry-transport model with a land surface model. Using the model's capabilities to simulate two-way interactions, we will investigate the role of different feedbacks in affecting future air pollution levels. The heat wave in summer 2003 will serve as a test bed to evaluate the model's performance under extremely warm and dry conditions. Summertime air quality will then be simulated for 'average' conditions expected by 2035 and 2060 taking projected changes in anthropogenic emissions into account. The study will provide important information for policy makers on the expected impact of emission reduction measures and will shed new light on the question of whether air quality will evolve in easily predictable way or whether it might react non-linearly to climate pressures.

Further information (English)

Full name of research-institution/enterprise: Eidg. Materialprüfungs- und Forschungsanstalt EMPA

Partners and International Organizations (English)

AT; BG; DK; EE; FI; FR; DE; EL; HU; IL; IT; MT; NL; NO; PL; PT; RS; SI; ES; SE; TR; UK; UA; RU; EG; US; BR

Abstract (English)

Air quality, weather and climate are intimately linked in multiple ways. The most widely recognized link is the effect of particulate matter (PM), a key air pollutant, on atmospheric radiation and clouds and thereby on weather. A less well established link is the interaction between weather and air quality through land surface and biosphere effects. In order to investigate these interactions, we have coupled the regional chemistry and meteorology model COSMO-ART to a comprehensive land surface and vegetation model, the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM). A large part of the work in the project has been completed in 2014 as described in the previous report. In this last year we focused on performing and analyzing additional case study simulations together with our partners of the COST Action. In addition, we have successfully coupled the CLM model to COSMO-ART and also developed new input data sets for CLM allowing us to perform simulations over Europe at high resolution. Results of these activities were presented at the final conference of the COST Action at the WMO headquarters in Geneva in February 2015. We continued working on the implementation of an efficient advection scheme together with colleagues of MeteoSwiss and the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen and initiated an STSM on this topic in February 2015. We also continued our collaborations with partners of the COST Action on analyzing the case study simulations, with colleagues at ETH and at the National Observatory of Athens on studying the impact of wood combustion aerosols, and with the Swiss Supercomputing Center CSCS on developing a faster and more energy-efficient version of COSMO-ART.

References in databases (English)

Swiss Database: COST-DB of the State Secretariat for Education and Research Hallwylstrasse 4 CH-3003 Berne, Switzerland Tel. [phone] Swiss Project-Number: C11.0144