Partners and International Organizations
(English)
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AT, BE, BG, CH, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, GR, HR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LV, NL, NO, PT, RS, SI, SK, UK
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Abstract
(English)
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Projecting the dynamics of managed forests over the coming few decades under strongly changing management and climatic drivers is a considerable challenge. In the past 20-30 years, dynamic forest growth models have increasingly been used to simulate the development of managed forests, whereas forest gap models have been used since nearly 40 years to study the dynamics of (mostly) unmanaged forests. In this project, we have continued our work to increase the local accuracy of the forest gap model ForClim. First, we have included a sophisticated management submodel in ForClim, such that most current management practices (sylvicultural interventions) can be simulated. The model was validated against a wide range of sites from the Swiss Growth-And-Yield network maintained by WSL. Second, the formulation of maximum tree height and the allocation of carbon into diameter and height growth were improved such as to better reflect site conditions as well as the consequences of sylvicultural interventions on tree growth. This was combined with a first assessment of climate change impacts on forests, suggesting changes in the projections of future forest growth at some sites compared to earlier assessment with less developed models. Third, in a comprehensive simulation study the importance of the climate change signal, of biodiversity and of management interventions was evaluated for a wide range of sites in the European Alps, suggesting that ecosystem goods and services (including timber production, structural diversity and protection from gravitative natural hazards) are affected to various degrees, surprisingly showing that the exact choice of the climate change scenario is not of key importance. The results of this Ph.D. thesis have partly been published in the international peer-reviewed literature, are under consideration for publication, or are currently still being finalized (last part of the thesis). The thesis will be completed within the coming few months.
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