Mathematische Modelle für Infektionskrankheiten: Validierung der Simulation von Tollwutimpfkampagnen und ihr Potential für die Schweiz

• Forschungsstelle: BLV
• Projektnummer: 1.08.03
• Projekttitel Englisch: Mathematical models of infectious diseases: Validation of the simulation if vaccination campaigns against rabies and its potential for Switzerland

Schlüsselwörter (Englisch)

Dog rabies, deterministic transmission model, cost-effectiveness, incidence, dog bite, Chad.

Kurzbeschreibung (Englisch)

Every year, 40’000 to 70’000 people die of rabies. Most of these deaths occur in tropical developing countries. The domestic dog is the main vector for human rabies and exposure. Exposed persons can be saved through post-exposure treatment (PET), which is however, not always available in developing countries. Canine rabies could be controlled and human exposure and rabies cases could be prevented through vaccination of the animal vector. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the threshold vaccination coverage for eradication in a dog population empirically at about 70%. WHO estimated that over a period of 15 years, dog vaccination combined with post-exposure treatment for exposed patients is more cost-effective than PET alone, where the virus still circulates in the dog population.

Projektziele (Englisch)

Aim: To validate the deterministic dog-human rabies transmission model by comparing the model designed results of a mass dog vaccination campaign with the observed incidence before and after the vaccination.
Objectives:
1. Fit of a model predicted intervention to a dog rabies mass vaccination campaign.
2. Analysis of the comparative cost-effectiveness of parenteral dog vaccination versus human PET alone.
3. Refinement of the current transmission model as a stochastic “rare events” model.
4. Assessment of the relationship of human bite recording and actual dog rabies incidence.

Publikationen / Ergebnisse (Englisch)

Totton,S.C., A.I.Wandeler, J.Zinsstag, C.T.Bauch, C.S.Ribble, R.C.Rosatte, and S.A.McEwen. 2010. "Stray dog population demographics in Jodhpur, India following a population control/rabies vaccination program." Prev.Vet.Med. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 97, 51–57.

Zugehörige Dokumente

• Datenblatt [PDF] 105 kB
• Trotton_Stray dog [PDF] 214 kB