Wirksamkeit der Überwachungs-, Vorbeugungs- und Bekämpfungs-Strategien der Vogelgrippe in der Schweiz

• Forschungsstelle: BLV
• Projektnummer: 1.07.05
• Projekttitel Englisch: Effectiveness of surveillance, prevention and control strategies of avian influenza

Schlüsselwörter (Englisch)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza, low pathogenic avian influenza, simulation, surveillance, migratory birds

Kurzbeschreibung (Englisch)

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a global threat to all countries with a poultry industry, semi-commercial production and backyard poultry and has already caused enormous economic losses. Since 1997, H5N1 viruses which have infected humans have included Haemagglutinins from several clades and variable genotypes. Therefore, all HPAI H5N1 viruses must be considered a potential threat to public health. This increases the scope of viruses with pandemic potential and the importance of continued surveillance of H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks. WHO and the OIE are urging countries worldwide to initiate surveillance programmes tailored to an early detection of cases of HPAI. There is an international demand to reduce random sampling and redirect the scarce resources to a targeted sampling, which focuses on the high-risk population, which is even more true for developing countries e.g. in Africa, which are almost devoid of surveillance capacity. In these cases, risk-based surveillance, and aiming at the most probable source of disease to save scarce resources are even more justified. This project aims: 1) To develop a statistical risk based framework for the combined analysis of surveillance data on avian influenza virus originating from various sources. 2) To develop a model for the assessment and optimisation of the effectiveness of different surveillance strategies for avian influenza. 3) To develop models to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies to prevent infection and spread of HPAI in commercial poultry. The approach is based on the Swiss Tropical Institute’s competence in Bayesian spatial risk analyses, transmission modelling of vector borne and zoonotic diseases and its international network in Africa and Asia. This project will focus on Switzerland but within the global context of transport, trade and wild bird migration. It will collaborate with all involved institutions in Switzerland dealing with domestic poultry and wild birds. Expected results and innovations are: 1. Risk maps and contributions to risk maps for LPAI and HPAI on wild and domestic birds in Switzerland. 2. Decision tree for AI risk based surveillance in Switzerland applicable also to low income countries. 3. Risk based surveillance map and sampling plan for AI in Switzerland. 4. Performance indicators of surveillance sensitivity and cost-effectiveness of surveillance of AI in Switzerland and 5. A transmission model of HPAI adapted to Switzerland capable to simulate different intervention strategies.

Projektziele (Englisch)

1) To develop a statistical risk based framework for the combined analysis of surveillance data on avian influenza virus originating from various sources.

 

2) To develop a model for the assessment and optimisation of the effectiveness of different surveillance strategies for avian influenza.

 

3) To develop models to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies to prevent infection and spread of HPAI in commercial poultry.

Umsetzung und Anwendungen (Englisch)

The results will contribute both at an applied as well as at a methodological level. The direct application of new scientific methods will enhance the quality of BVET’s decision making with respect to HPAI. The sound basis for future surveillance activities will make sure that limited resources are applied in the best possible way. Additionally, results will be used in the review of current contingency planning for HPAI. This will help make sure that Switzerland is thoroughly prepared for a potential introduction of HPAI.

 

Methodologically, the concept of risk-based surveillance will be further developed. Additionally, an approach for the combination of surveillance data from various sources will be developed using new statistical methods. Both these developments will be applicable not only in the context of HPAI but will be of general interest for all surveillance programmes of BVET.

 

By this work Switzerland contributes also to HPAI surveillance and control in Developing countries. Long term control of HPAI will not be achievable without massive reinforcement of animal disease surveillance in developing countries. In this respect Switzerland would further fulfil expectations of OIE to enhance its contribution to global animal disease control. Specifically this project may indirectly contribute technically to HPAI surveillance in Chad, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire through the established network of collaboration of the Swiss Tropical Institute.

Publikationen / Ergebnisse (Englisch)

Fiebig, L.; Smieszek, T.; Saurina, J.; Hattendorf, J.; Zinsstag, J. (2009) Contacts between poultry farms, their spatial dimension and their relevance for avian influenza preparedness. Geospatial Health 4(1), 2009, 79-95.

Smieszek, T.; Fiebig, L.; Scholz, R. W. (2009) Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2009, 6:11 doi:10.1186/1742-4682-6-11, Openaccess. http://www.tbiomed.com/content/6/1/11

Fiebig, L. (2009) Risk-based Surveillance of Avian Influenza in Switzerland: Insights into Poultry Farm Determinants and Contact Networks. Inauguraldissertation, Philosophisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Universität Bern.

Zugehörige Dokumente

• 1.07.05 Datenblatt [PDF] 10 kB
• Clustering_in_Transmission_Models.pdf [PDF] 3'542 kB