Kurzbeschreibung
(Englisch)
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The overall goal of this project is to explore and quantify the relation between the European phenology and climate using statistically robust methods. Focus will be given on inter-annual and decadal variability in regional patterns. A multispecies phenology index will be developed for Europe and adapted to the new COST data-platform. Maps showing regional variability and deviations from long term mean development will be produced for scientific as well as for public information (teaching, public awareness) purposes.
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Partner und Internationale Organisationen
(Englisch)
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AT, BE, BG, CH, CZ, DE, DK, EE, ES, FI, FR, GR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LU, LV, NL, NO, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK, UK
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Abstract
(Englisch)
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An earlier onset of phenological spring events in response to climate change has been confirmed in numerous studies. Most of these studies were confined to one phenological phase at various locations. In this study, we present a multispecies dataset of fifteen different phenological phases covering the Alpine region from 1971 to 2004. The goal is to determine the impact of climate parameters such as Growing Degree Days (GDD) and Number of Wet Days (NWD) on phenological observations. Missing observations were treated by interpolating the data with a statistical method and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied as a statistical tool. It is shown that the first spatial pattern for phenology is quite homogeneous and the corresponding averaged beginning of phenology has advanced by 1.8 days per decade. Regionally important, the second phenology and GDD patterns are clearly dominated by altitudinal gradients, meaning that plants in higher elevations tend to a later phenology with effectively less GDD than plants in the lowlands. GDD are found to be the main factor for this overall observed change in phenology. Compared to Switzerland, analogous climate change signals are found for the entire Alpine region.
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