Résumé des résultats (Abstract)
(Anglais)
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The STREP 'CAPRI-DynaSpat -Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Assessment -The Dynamic & Spatial Dimension' aims at ex-ante policy assessment of the CAP by maintenance and application of the existing CAPRI modelling system and its improvement in several directions. The projects is devoted to six tasks: (1) regular yearly application of the CAPRI system during the project's lifetime (database update, reference run, scenario writing and CAP impact assessment), (2) improvement of CAPRI's economic core model by development and validation of a recursive-dynamic version, (3) development of an employment module for CAPRI, (4) development of an indicator for energy use in agriculture, (5) development of a GIS link (soil, climatic and land use map), link and development of a landscape assessment indicator and to a process based model for agricultural Green House Gas emissions and (6) full integration of Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic plus a pilot study for the further expansion of CAPRI. The main objective of the proposal is to provide policy makers and society with reliable ex-ante impact assessment of CAP measures on agricultural income, production and land use, environmental indicators and employment at farm type, regional, national and EU level by regular yearly baseline and scenario analysis. The main instrument is the CAPRI modelling system combining consistently (1) aggregated programming models for farm types at NUTS II level with (2) a spatial multi-commodity model for agricultural world markets, and (3) environmental pressure indicators. The project addresses all elements mentioned in Task 12 'Ex-ante policy assessment of CAP' of Priority 8.1, and relates to other important policy relevant topics as the East expansion of the union, the Kyoto protocol and the multifunctional role of agriculture. Dissemination activities include regular reports to commission services and the public, contributions to scientific conferences and journals and press releases.
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