Impact of predicted climate change and plant-water transfer schemes on transmission of Schistosoma japonica in China

• Forschungsstelle: TPH
• Projektnummer: 6.09
• Projekttitel Englisch: Impact of predicted climate change and plant-water transfer schemes on transmission of Schistosoma japonica in China

Schlüsselwörter (Englisch)

Bayesian methods, China, GIS, Markov chain Monte Carlo , Remote Sensing, schistosoma japonicum, spatial statistics

Kurzbeschreibung (Englisch)

The project aims to

(a) predict the potential distribution of O.hupensis induced by the climate warming

(b) carry out biological experiments to assess the impact of temperature on both, parasite and host

(c) investigate snail habitats along the water transfer route by remote sensing

(d) assess the space-season variation of schistosomiasis risk in Jiangsu province

Projektziele (Englisch)

The project aim is to investigate the co-impacts of climate warming and water transfer on the distribution of the snail intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis, and the transmission of parasite, Schistosoma japonicum, by using spatial models which will be established and modified on the basis of experimental data, remote sensing image data, environmental data and epidemiological data. The hypothesis is that the extending possibility of the schistosomiasis transmission region northwards could increased due to the climate warming and south-north water transfer.

Abstract (Englisch)

Climate changes influence the distribution and transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases and the life cycle of certain of those parasites. However the impact of predicted climatic changes on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China has not been investigated. In this project we aim to qualitatively elucidated the impact of temperature and relevant climatic factors on the development of both parasite and snail stages and the mechanism of those influences. Results of the project will assist China's government to enhance schistosomiasis control strategy.

Publikationen / Ergebnisse (Englisch)

Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Utzinger J & Tanner M (2005). A review of geographic information system and remote sensing with applications to the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis in China. Acta Tropica 96: 117-129.

Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M & Utzinger J (2005). A potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Parassitologia 47: 127-134.

Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M & Utzinger J (2005). A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, China. International Journal for Parasitology 35: 155-162.