Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of P. falciparum malaria

• Forschungsstelle: TPH
• Projektnummer: 6.01
• Projekttitel Englisch: Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of P. falciparum malaria

Schlüsselwörter (Englisch)

Malaria Plasmodium Impfstoff Epidemiologie Vaccine Epidemiology Model Stochastic Simulation

Kurzbeschreibung (Englisch)

We are using a multi-stage modeling strategy to predict both the individual and population effects of a range of potential malaria vaccines. The proposed modeling will consider both the short- and long term effects of malaria vaccines on the burden of disease, allowing for the temporal dynamics of effects on immunity and transmission. The project will provide cost-effectiveness estimates for a wide range of vaccines and vaccination strategies. The models are being fitted to field datasets including the Garki data, large panel-datasets of PCR typing data from Africa, and parasite density profiles from malariatherapy patients.

Projektziele (Englisch)

The project is developing mathematical models of the natural history of malaria in order to estimate the potential impact of future malaria vaccines, will help inform scientific decisions related to malaria vaccine research and development, ensuring that field realities are taken into consideration. Companies will be able to use the study results in strategic decision-making about malaria vaccine demand forecasting and manufacturing capacity. In the future, the model is expected to serve as a tool to help national governments determine how malaria vaccines fit into their immunization and integrated malaria control programs.
For details see: http://www.malariavaccine.org/files/030708-partnership.htm

Abstract (Englisch)

The project is developing mathematical models of the natural history of malaria in order to estimate the potential impact of future malaria vaccines on the global disease burden. Using existing malaria vaccine candidates-and field data from epidemiological studies the project is exploring the effects of malaria vaccination and current malaria control strategies on Plasmodium falciparum malaria, the leading cause of death among African children under the age of five.

Publikationen / Ergebnisse (Englisch)

Dietz K, Raddatz G, Molineaux L, Mathematical Model Of The First Wave Of Plasmodium Falciparum Asexual Parasitemia In Non-Immune And Vaccinated Individuals Am J Trop Med Hyg 2006 75: 46-55.

Guy Hutton And Fabrizio Tediosi The Costs Of Introducing A Malaria Vaccine Through The Expanded Program On Immunization In Tanzania Am J Trop Med Hyg 2006 75: 119-130.

Killeen G, Ross A, Smith T. Infectiousness of malaria-endemic human populations to vectors. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2),38-45, 2006.

Maire N, Aponte JJ, Ross A, Thomson R, Alonso P, Utzinger J, Tanner M, Smith T. Modeling a field trial of the RTS,S/AS02A malaria vaccine. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 104-110, 2006.

Maire N, Smith T, Ross A, Owusu-Agyei S, Dietz K, Molineaux L. A model for natural immunity to asexual blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic areas. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 19-31, 2006.

Maire N, Tediosi F, Ross A, Smith T. Predictions of the epidemiological impact of introducing a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in sub-Saharan Africa. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 111-118, 2006.

Ross A, Killeen G, Smith T. Relationships of host infectivity to mosquitoes and asexual parasite density in Plasmodium falciparum. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 32-37, 2006.

Ross A, Maire N, Molineaux L, Smith T. An epidemiological model of severe morbidity and mortality caused by Plasmodium falciparum. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2),63-73, 2006.

Ross A, Smith T. The effect of malaria transmission intensity on neonatal mortality in endemic areas. . American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 74-81, 2006.

Smith T, Killeen G, Maire N, Ross A, Molineaux L, Tediosi F, Hutton G, Utzinger J, Dietz K, Tanner M. Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: Overview. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2),1-10, 2006.

Smith T, Maire N, Dietz K, Killeen G, Vounatsou P, Molineaux L, Tanner T. Relationships between the entomological inoculation rate and the force of infection for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2),11-18, 2006.

Smith T, Ross A, Maire N, Rogier C, Trape J-F, Molineaux L. An epidemiological model of the incidence of acute illness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 56-62, 2006.

Tediosi F, Hutton G, Maire N, Smith T, Ross A, Tanner M. Predicting the cost-effectiveness of introducing a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in Tanzania. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 131-143, 2006.

Tediosi F, Maire N, Smith T, Hutton G, Utzinger J, Ross A, Tanner M. An approach to model the costs and effects of case management of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 75(Suppl 2), 90-103, 2006.