Error Propagation in Transport Models

• Research unit: FEDRO RBT
• Project number: SVI2004/015

Key words (German)

Key words (English)

Error propagation, transport models

Short description (German)

Short description (English)

Build a transport modelling SW from existing modules and include error propagation functionalities. Use this SW to find out I/O dependencies of errors. Produce a leaflet which summarises all results.

Project description (English)

The goal is to answer the question: "How precise is a transport model?". The rules of error propagation are well known to physicists. They will be applied to the 4 steps of transport modeling, with special emphasis to the assignment procedure. First, a model developed at ETHZ in OBERON will be translated and extended to apply error propagation rules to all numerical operations. Second, error propagation will be studied with a small synthetic model and the Swiss private transport model from ARE. Third, a leaflet (1 page A4, recto/verso, for broad distribution) will be created with a) basics of error propagation in transport models, b) advices to follow to minimize errors, c) some rules of thumb to estimate the output errors from known input, and d) pitfalls to avoid dring the process.

Methods (English)

modelling, simulation, aplication of the theory of error propagation in numerical calculation

Special tools and infrastructure (English)

none

Overview of own research activities (English)

References in the field:
1) Multiple applications of error propagation in weapon simulation systems for the Swiss defense sector (GRD 1978-1990)
2) Die Fehlerfortpflanzung in Verkehrs- und Emissionsmodellen (Sem' Arbeit C. Luz, ETHZ 1994)
3) www.zueritraffic.ch (Dienstabteilung Verkehr, Stadt Zürich)
4) Project TMP-CH with Robert-Grandpierre+Rapp AG (ASTRA)
5) Project Traffic Online CH with B+S AG (ASTRA)
6) Project Qualitron with Büro B+S AG (ASTRA)
7) Intelligent VMS Setting for the motorway junction Darmstadt (Verkehrszentrale Hessen, Frankfurt/Rödelheim)

Project aims (German)

Project aims (English)

1) acquire knowledge about errors propagation in transport models, 2) estimate what input errors influence which
output quantities and how much, 3) produce a leaflet to help model users apply these findings in practice

Research agenda (English)

Total max 18 months.
step 1) until 06/2005 literature, theory, build and test the necessary SW
step 2) until 12/2005 I/O and sensitivity analysis, with special attention to raod pricing applications
step 3) until 06/2006 conclusions, main report (english), leaflet (english, deutsch, français)

Abstract (German)

.

Transfer and application (German)

The project is practice-oriented. The results will be useful to:
a) users of tranport modelling SW to estimate how their input errors will influence their results
b) future dynamic and online systems (FCD), where the input can have large fluctuations.

Transfer and application (English)

The project is practice-oriented. The results will be useful to:
a) users of tranport modelling SW to estimate how their input errors will influence their results
b) future dynamic and online systems (FCD), where the input can have large fluctuations

Berichtsnummer (German)

1157

Literature (English)

1) John R. Taylor, An Introduction to ERROR ANALYSIS, 2nd ed. Univ. Science Books, 1997
2) Bell & Iida, TRANSPORTATION NETWORK ANALYSIS, Wiley 1997
3) Jessop, DECISION FORECASTING MODELS with Transport Applications, Ellis Horwood, 1990
4) Ortuzar & Willumsen, MODELLING TRANSPORT, Wiley 1990
5) Schnabel & Lohse, GRUNDLAGEN DER VERKEHRSPLANUNG, Verlag für Bauwesen, 1997